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SPECIAL REPORT
Is the Mobile Market really slowing down?
In recent weeks, several respected commentators have suggested that the mobile market is slowing and may not reach previously forecast targets. Their focus is on the device market rather than the customer numbers, but the two are clearly linked so in this piece we consider whether their caution is justified. At The Mobile World, we expect global subscriber numbers to reach 4bn by the year end, implying an increase of 667m - 5% more than the 638m net additions seen in 2007. This may seem ambitious in the context of the current world economy, but so far the data supports the forecast and, if anything, suggests our number could be conservative. Q1 08 saw the addition of 151m new mobile connections globally, the fourth largest gain ever and a clear record for Q1 - bettering Q1 07 by over 15%. One quarter doesn't make a year, but so far this century, Q1 has produced an average of 20.7% of the total annual net additions and if the pattern is repeated, we will see over 700m additions and a total of more than 4.05bn. That doesn't necessarily imply huge growth in handset sales, but it clearly would be a helpful start.
In recent weeks, several respected commentators have suggested that the mobile market is slowing and may not reach previously forecast targets. Their focus is on the device market rather than the customer numbers, but the two are clearly linked so in this piece we consider whether their caution is justified. At The Mobile World, we expect global subscriber numbers to reach 4bn by the year end, implying an increase of 667m - 5% more than the 638m net additions seen in 2007. This may seem ambitious in the context of the current world economy, but so far the data supports the forecast and, if anything, suggests our number could be conservative. Q1 08 saw the addition of 151m new mobile connections globally, the fourth largest gain ever and a clear record for Q1 - bettering Q1 07 by over 15%. One quarter doesn't make a year, but so far this century, Q1 has produced an average of 20.7% of the total annual net additions and if the pattern is repeated, we will see over 700m additions and a total of more than 4.05bn. That doesn't necessarily imply huge growth in handset sales, but it clearly would be a helpful start.
VIEWPOINT
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